3. Effective Scenario Planning – Insights gained from our approach

We have previously explored Scenario Planning as a powerful and effective, forward-looking approach for future proofing integrated Health and Care Systems. In part 2 of this series we outlined our approach to building flexible and dynamic models driven by a number of clinically-validated assumptions, gained from interactive sessions with subject matter experts in the relevant areas. In this piece, we discuss the insight gained from applying this model successfully in a number of real-world scenarios.

We have a undertaken several recent projects using this approach, including two Health Boards (and associated Health and Social Care Partnerships) in East and Central Scotland, as well as the five Health Boards across the West of Scotland. We developed a strategic planning approach that can be used to describe demand and capacity models for each component part of the health and social care system going forward to 2035 and beyond.  This in turn can be used to inform the workforce and infrastructure which will be required in the future.

“between 20% and 40% of acute bed days could be avoided or provided in an alternative setting”

In East and Central Scotland, work has focussed on opportunities to change the ways in which community hospital and care homes deliver their services and models of care, and the relationships with flow into and out of the acute hospitals. In the West of Scotland the primary focus of this work was activity within acute care, though consideration has also been given to the interface with out-of-hospital health and care provision. Clinical utilisation audit tools typically show that between 20% and 40% of acute bed days could be avoided or provided in an alternative settings, resulting in enhanced acute flow, improved patient satisfaction and better use of expensive resources.

With this in mind, we have developed a scenario to assess the out-of-hospital activity and capacity required to replace care currently provided within acute settings, with a range of alternative health and care resources including intermediate care models, enhanced support in residential care and supported living within the home environment.  Not only does this allow the quantification of the potential acute capacity released but also defines the out of hospital inputs required to deliver care in the alternative settings.

This has been a valuable exercise as we consider the future configurations of Health and Care Services in the Boards and across the region. We welcomed the strong collaborative approach that the team from B+A brought to this work.”

John BurnsRegional Implementation Lead for the West of Scotland